Avoiding the Overconfidence Trap
No one who lived through the second Bush Administration can forget Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s famous observation on what is known and unknown: “…As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” Perhaps ironic based on how so many policies went wrong during that time period, this quote endures as a catchy insight into the nature of risk assessment. Self-aware individuals can make smart decisions based not only on what they know they know and don’t know, but have to also account for what they might not know they don’t know. If your head is spinning from the circular language, you’ll appreciate the Johari window, a visual representation…